Week 16 differences

Closing in on the halfway point of the season, the gulf between top and bottom is cavernous, standing currently at 590 points. Closer analysis finds that there are groups of relative quality being developed within the league, and we find that three leagues within the league have been established. Analysis of the current gap between each team is presented at the gamutofwe. The graph demonstrates three dramatic peaks, marked by Furtive Baboon Incursions, Le Coq Sportif and Rushmere Ramblers. This suggests that the league is currently demarked into three groups: 1-3, 4-8, 9-13, and 14. In other words, whichever group you belong team, you are only under threat by teams within that group. There is a 166 pt gap between FBI and SB. There is a 102 gap between LL and CS. So, even if you can top your group, there is a long old slog to claw your way into the next strata. Rushmere Ramblers are so poor that they are marooned in a group of their own, adrift by 89 points. The question is, while the stats bare out the facts, do you choose to believe and accept this as the status quo?

The battle for 5th place

The battle for 5th place

Lampard v Fabregas

Anaphylactic Ham Points Lead

Points Comparison

Gorsky vs Ham vs Shatner

Ham vs Gorsky

Gorsky vs Ham

Graph success

Week 6 Stats

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	Total
Anaphylactic Ham	149.5	108	137	112.5	175.5	105	787.5
Shatners Bassoon	198.5	117.5	118	86.5	130	102	752.5
Best of Luck Mr Gorsky	156.5	124	101	82.5	124	131	719
The Smeggheads	193	107.5	104.5	73	104.5	120	702.5
Black Country Select XI	153	88.5	55.5	90.5	123.5	117	628
Lemon Lyman	121.5	109	88.5	90.5	138.5	77.5	625.5
The Southern Dandies FC	148.5	99	128	73	109	68	625.5
Furtive Baboon Incursions	139	106	56.5	83	111.5	121.5	617.5
Panga-Land Centurions	110.5	62	73.5	115.5	120	123.5	605
Sporting Kansas	117.5	107.5	93.5	99	94.5	89	601
Conker Inferno	161.5	92	86	81	82	86	588.5
Belgian Golden Shoe	142	86	88	55	104	92.5	567.5
Rushmere Ramblers	131.5	65	72.5	81	96.5	115	561.5
Le Coq Speedcortif	122.5	89	66.5	87	92.5	77	534.5
Total	2046	1363	1272	1214	1611	1431	8916
Avg	146.1	97.4	90.9	86.7	115.1	102.2	636.9
MIN	110.5	62	55.5	55	82	68	534.5
MAX	198.5	124	137	115.5	175.5	131	787.5
STDEV	26.1	18.1	25.2	15.6	23.6	20.2	75.2
Panga-Land Centurions	110.5	62	73.5	115.5	120	123.5	605
Difference to week avg	-35.6	-35.4	-17.4	28.8	4.9	21.3	-31.9
Anaphylactic Ham	149.5	108	137	112.5	175.5	105	787.5
Difference to week avg	3.4	10.6	46.1	25.8	60.4	2.8	150.6

Amazing Names

Borrowed somewhat from the Guardian, here is a list of some footballers with awesome names:

Givemore Manuella
Gift Makolonio
Method Mwanyazi
Limited Chicafa
Danger Fourpence
Stephen Sunny Sunday
Naughty Makoena
Tomic Chabalala
Osa Guobadia (who's shirt has Ice Cream on the back)
Creedence Clearwater Couto
Harry Daft
Segar Bastard
Norman Conquest
Johnny Moustache
Bongo Christ
And finally a German named Franco Foda who made his international debut against Brazil. Unfortunately his name is Portuguese for "fucking for free" and his appearance was distracting enough to allow Germany to snatch a last minute winner.

He's a good shot stopper

The phrase that titles this post is very often said as damning or faint praise. It is not often accompanied by anything else about the goalkeeper but the omission of anything else to say implies that this is the extent of the said goalkeepers abilities. It is not often said of Petr Cech that he is "a good shot stopper"; but of course he is. On the other hand I once heard an Everton fan describe Thomas Myhre as a" good shot stopper". I certainly didn't think that this meant Myhre was part of an elite upper echelon class of goalkeepers only very few of which existed.

All of the above is probably because being a good shot stopper is the first, primary job of the goalkeeper. If you are not good at stopping people from scoring then what are you doing playing in goal (unless everyone else has conceded two goals for your team)? That said, some goalkeepers are better at it than others, and it makes me wonder how important it is in Fantasy football.

With that in mind I created the above table:

Figures in bold are the statistics I calculated from the information lifted from the fantasy database. One premise I worked from was the idea that in order to make a save your defense has to allow the opposition the chance to shoot. Clean sheets and winning matches are the biggest points winners so this means a goalkeepers saves are a double edged sword. It is not a surprise that the goalkeeper with the most saves is also the one with the most goals allowed. He being Scott Carson. So I looked at how the number of saves a goalkeeper made interacted with how many he let in.

From the table you can see that Mark Schwarzer has the best % of shots saved. It is his shot stopping ability, as much as anything else, that has helped Fulham keep their clean sheets. He has been made to work as many times as Thomas Sorensen (of Stoke) but conceded roughly half as many. You can also see that Petr Cech is indeed a good shot stopper - as is Edwin Van De Saar. Both save just under 80% of the shots fired at them.

Myhill and Paul Robinson are horrible. They have negative points when it comes to saving shots and it looks as though their respective teams would benefit if they were better shot stoppers. That Paul Robinson was, for a time, first choice England goalkeeper is astounding looking at these stats. David James is very low on the list himself and the best English goalkeeper is Robert Green.

Jonno says Davies!

Today, I interviewed sporting panelist 'Jonno' who offered his tip for the weekend.

Jonno's Visions:




"Bendtner... Crouch... Sidibe... Carew... what do they all have in common? No, not the fact they're huge lumps up front. The common factor is all of them are not a patch on Kev Davies.

So thats my tip for you this weekend - Super Kevin Davies! Now just two goals shy of 50 during his Bolton career, and with 3 goals in his last 3 games, he's a sure bet this weekend.

Defenders simply cant handle this fine specimen of a striker. Invest your money wisely.

Nicely x"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10FKWOn4qGA

Blocked Shots

A look at the top ten Shot Blockers so far....



Kamil Zayatte has scored 46 points from Blocked Shots this season, 95.7% of his season total.

Player		Total Pts	AVG	GP	BS	BS per GP	Pt from BS	BS as % of season total
M.	Upson	134	5.36	25	29	1.16	58	43.3%
P.	Jagielka	174.5	6.98	25	29	1.16	58	33.2%
G.	Cahill	143	7.15	20	27	1.35	54	37.8%
Andy	O'Brien	95.52	3.98	24	26	1.08	52	54.4%
M.	Turner	181.5	7.26	25	26	1.04	52	28.7%
B.	Hangeland	150.04	6.82	22	23	1.05	46	30.7%
J.	Collins	97.02	6.93	14	23	1.64	46	47.4%
K.	Zayatte	48.09	2.29	21	23	1.10	46	95.7%
R.	Shawcross	100.48	6.28	16	22	1.38	44	43.8%
J.	Terry	138.6	6.3	22	22	1.00	44	31.7%

Two defenders each from Hull, Everton and Bolton appear in the list of top ten 'Shot Blockers'. There is no direct parallel between blocked shots and scoring good points. Kamil Zayatte gets as many blocked shots as Brede Hangeland but has scored 100 less points this season.

A Blocked Shot earns 2 points.

Team of the week - Week 24

Portsmouth's Glen Johnson, seen here being spooned by Lassana Diarra, was top scorer of the week with 33 points

S	Given	Goalkeeper	18	Man City	v Mboro, @ Portsmouth
G.	Johnson	Defender	33	Portsmouth	v Liverpool, Man City
H.	Hreidarsson	Defender	29	Portsmouth	v Liverpool, Man City
P.	Zabaleta	Defender	17	Man City	v Mboro, @ Portsmouth
D.	Gosling*	Defender	16.5	Everton	v Bolton
J.	Milner	Midfielder	25	Aston Villa	at Blackburn
M.	Arteta	Midfielder	21.5	Everton	v Bolton
R.	Giggs	Midfielder	19.5	Man Utd	at West Ham
	Jô	Forward	28.5	Everton	v Bolton
C.	Bellamy	Forward	19	Man City	v Mboro
K.	Jones	Forward	18.5	Sunderland	v Stoke
Bench
J.	Terry	Defender	16.5	Chelsea	v Hull
G.	Barry	Midfielder	16.5	Aston Villa	at Blackburn
* Gosling makes the cut for representing best value for money Of the outfield players, only Pablo Zabaleta, Dan Gosling and the bench boys didn't score goals.

The Whole Gamut of We: Outswinger

MF SOTS

Stats as of Week 25. Top 10 midfielder SOTs.


Matthew Taylor averages 0.95 shots per game

Player	GP	SOT	AVG
Lampard	25	42	1.68
Ronaldo	21	35	1.67
Gerrard	21	28	1.33
Bullard	19	23	1.21
M Taylor	21	20	0.95
Bentley	23	20	0.87
Ireland	24	20	0.83
A Young	23	18	0.78
Barry	25	16	0.64
Wright Phillips	23	16	0.70

Outswinger

Here is a question: Which team takes the most corner kicks? Who concedes the most corner kicks? If you don't know, then you're like me - ignorant.

Well buckle up, prepare yourself - I have discovered a small piece of this potentially vital data. What does it tell us? I do not know. But I think it is the first step toward a more sophisticated understanding of how to anticipate where the points from corner kicks will come from.

For corners taken, the top three teams for the 2008-09 season are Arsenal (185), Liverpool (183), and Man U (176). The bottom three teams are Middlesborough (109), Sunderland (106) and Newcastle (102). That is a HUGE difference. Not all premier league winger/corner whipper-inners are the same - opportunities vary greatly.

Which teams concede the most corners? Hull and Middlesborough have given over 180 so far this season. But wait! Don't ass-u-me that corners are mostly given by the bottom feeders. Aston Villa have conceded a whopping 160 corners (Man U have conceded a stingy 85).

What about home v. away corners taken/conceded? I don't know. We must continue researching this and find out. I would say that based on these very basic discoveries, there is much more valuable info to unearth when looking into corners.

Check it out: http://www.365stats.com/football/index.php?p=league&type=entertain&div=E0&sort=cornersa&dir=desc

Okochas, Ginolas, Solanos- where have you gone?

Firstly can I just say how I enjoy the look of the blog very much.

Next, I wanted to moan about the lack of wingers/magic men/midfield points machines in the league, or rather I want to test my theory that things ain't what they used to be with a list of all the premier teams and their exciting wide-men/football wizards/SC-merchants (or lack of).
I will not be counting steady middlemen like barry, gerrard, bullard, lampard.

Arsenal- injuries have to accounted for, but only Nasri atm is a sorry state
Aston Villa- Young is great , milner there as well
Blackburn- Gamst ain't what he used to be. (Villaneuva? insubstantial...from times past?)
Bolton- Matt taylor provides the fizz. McCann and muamba the only alternatives
Chelsea- hooray for quaresma, bucking the trend perhaps, malouda and j cole bit lacking.
Everton- arteta is a star for FF
Fulham- mmmmm.... davies? whats happened to gera?
Hull- not sure, arise kilbane?
Liverpool- kuyt, riera, benayoun, babel :-(
man city- flying the flag with SWP and petrov to return
Man utd- have bigger flag in ronaldo shape marvellously
Middlesborough- trust in downing will you try?
Newcastle- gutierriez and duff (i like jonas but these two don't set the points pulse racing)
Portsmouth- kranckjar is hard to spell, pennant at last playing week in week out.
Stoke city- ditto for etherington
Sunderland- richardson, reid and malbranque suggest some flair/SCs.
Tottenham- bentley's swamp
WBA- best MFers averaging 6.
West ham- yahoo only has four west ham midfielders listed. one is kieron dyer.
Wigan- valencia ends the list on a positive note but stands out like a lovely sore thumb.

Things aren't looking good i would conclude and i increasingly struggle to pick a left-field midfield four without fear of failure. But have things got worse?

Guardian Chalk Board

Nice work setting this thing up Laurence. I assume I know what I am doing, treating this thing like a posting on Fantasy Football but with more options/facilities/potentialities etc.

Just thought I would mention the new stat facility from the Guardian, many of you will have seen it already, but thought I would get it into the blog as this is exactly the sort of place I should be linking it for everyone.

With that in mind, I will give brief summary - the facility is called Chalkboards and it is supposedly used by Premier League managers from Alex Ferguson to Ricky Sbragia. It gives you accurate stats on all players passing/shooting/tackling/interceptions etc in all matches in the last three seasons. The visuals are the main attraction as they can tell you where a player is making his passes and interceptions etc, plus there is the ease with which you can study a player's performances in individual matches.

It looks like it could be very useful, but I think it could take a while to see how it can be used to its full potential. I am hoping it can provide some illuminating information with regards fantasy picking.

Link below

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/chalkboards/create

Scoobylicsious

Key points from Scoobyliscious' blog:

"This week, unsurprisingly, the league leaders are the best offensive option."

"Newcastle at home to Sunderland in the second position. Magpies, Gunners, Villa are level on 18 goals in 11 games at home, but the Toon Army have the joy of facing the worst of the 3 defenses, so they see a boost in their predicted score."

(This begs the question of an examination of recent form as proposed by dan_monkey. Sunderland's recent form under Sbragia sees the defence dramtically improved in the last 5 games.)

"The Geordies and the Cottagers should provide everyone with inexpensive options while we load up on streaking Man Utd players."

"Fulham are the only squad predicted to allow less than 0.5 goals, based upon an above-average defense facing a below-average attack."

Premier League team news: Weekend squad, stats and betting tips

Saturday, Jan 31

Stat Attack: Arsenal have scored in their last nine Premier League games, the best run in the division.

Stat Attack: Wigan are the only team to have converted four penalties this season.

Stat Attack: Spurs have not won at Bolton since 1996.

Stat Attack: Pompey are unbeaten in their last three visits to Craven Cottage.

Stat Attack: Blackburn have won on four of their last five visits to the Riverside.

Stat Attack: Robinho scored his first hat-trick in English football when Manchester City beat Stoke 3-0 in October.

Stat Attack: Liverpool have gone 22 games and 13 months since their last home defeat.

Stat Attack: Sunderland, 2-1 winners in October, are looking for their first derby double over Newcastle since the 1966-67 campaign.

Premier-League-team-news-Weekend-squad-stats-and-betting-tips.

What actually goes on inside Harry Redknapp's Head

Daily Mirror, 27/1/09

Relative Form Statistic

I was thinking has anyone come across stats that reflect a season's relative difficulty for any given club, based upon the relative form of opposition. For example you might award a difficulty rating based upon the opposition's last 5 results and tally it all up.

is this silly? or would it end up interesting reading? i was thinking about how hull and stoke have recently dipped and how it would be better to play them away now then it was in october.
perhaps this is just an excuse machine (thinking of arsenal).

(supplied by Saltbeef Showcase manager, dan_monkey_2000)

Revealed: Fink Tank's secret formula

The Times: Fink Tank's secret formula

"Daniel Finkelstein helps you to make your own rough-and-ready estimation of match-day probability. With just a few figures and a calculator, you should be able to do it in the pub on the way to the match."

Pre-season finale

This blog is being created for the purpose of providing an information channel dedicated to uk Premier League Fantasy Football. This is borne out of an acknowledged, if suppressed, aching need to discuss and investigate further the statistics that increasingly encroach on and enhance our enjoyment of the beautiful game. Statistics are a relatively new aspect to our understanding of the game arming us with a double edged sword of enlightenment and ugliness. What human being deserves to be broken down into discreet units of data? Certainly not our beloved heroes who rise from the tunnels to slay our common enemy twice a week. And, yet how can we resist wanting to know that Steve McLaren justified Frank Lampard's position in the England team largely by the citing the statistic that Flumps had the highest percentage of completed passes than any other. Top flight managers have dossiers devoted to statistics such as this, compiled by technicians who have access to information supplied by chips implanted into every player who has signed a professional contract in the last 10 years. And we, the punters, are given slithers, teasers of information by our media overlords which leave us slathering for more.

One of the best and only ways to access 'more' information over the recent years has been through Premier League Fantasy Football supplied by Yahoo!. Yahoo! evolved the Fantasy Football game, smashing the information barrier. Many are now also supplying excellent, more in depth games, such as the Starting 11, and the Guardian. When I was a nipper, the only games available rewarded points for goals, assists, clean sheets, cautions and appearances. Granted, many such retrograde games still exist and you can still pay newspapers to allow you the pleasure to enter into their simplistic matrices. However, Yahoo first gave us the possibility of getting points for exciting new things like Shots on Target, Successful Crosses, Tackles Won and Blocked Shots to name a few. There was even a time when players were punished -0.03 points for each time they gave the ball away. This gave rise to an evolved meritocracy. In the old model, the perogative was purely to cram as many as the top teams players into your team as possible. Not that this isn't entirely the case now, but, today, the system rewards the obscure. Over the years, the likes of Graham Stuart, Simon Davies and Dean Whitehead have earnt relative success and a healthy respect through their abilities to accumulate successful crosses and tackles won on the sly. What hope for these totems to mediocrity under the old model?

The purpose of this small corner is to devote time and space to the understanding of the game. A community exists through the forums but there is a lack of in depth scrutiny.

The idea is to provide a platform for a collection of resources and insights derived from various sources and an archive of lateral statistical investigation. Anyone is free to ask or answer. There is no need for anyone to "sign in."

First question ..... Is anyone up for trying to explain Felipe Caicedo?